School closures play a large part in how differently the pandemic has affected men and women when it comes to dropping out of the labor force, said Luke Pardue, economist at human resource management firm Gusto.
Hopes are high that a full return to classrooms in the fall will allow parents who were forced out of the workforce during the pandemic to again look for a job.
But there’s still a whole summer break to go until schools restart. So it will be a while until the expected boom materializes.
“I’m not seeing any accelerator between now and September — and then [there will be] a boom” when schools reopen, David Gilbertson, chief customer officer of workforce management business UKG, told CNN Business.
What to expect from the May report
If the predictions for May hold true, America will still be down 7.6 million jobs compared with February 2020.
The unemployment rate is expected to inch down to 5.9% from 6.1%. The services sector, with hospitality and leisure at the top, is again likely to gain the most jobs after experiencing the biggest drop last year, economists said.
But the recent job gains haven’t been broad-based, and that doesn’t bode well for the overall recovery: In April, most of the jobs added were held by workers aged 16 to 19.
Eyes on wages
Economists are also watching what’s going on with wages.
Even though millions are still unemployed, wages haven’t taken a similar hit, in part because the pandemic crisis wiped out so many low-income jobs.
“The jobs hit hardest by the crisis are those that pay the least,” said Indeed economic research director Nick Bunker. He noted overall employment is 5.4% below February 2020 levels — but employment in low average-wage industries is down 9.7% in the same period.
But some are optimistic the summer will usher in the next phase of the rebound.
“We anticipate that June will mark the point at which the economy moves beyond recovering lost ground and enters a period of expansion,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US.
Americans’ incomes and spending jumped in March, on the back of stimulus checks, while savings shrunk. This revitalization of the consumer sector is a good sign for more employment gains in the summer, Brusuelas said.
