Vaccinated Countries Wary of Relapse Stunt Air Travel Reopening

Photographer: Wei Leng Tay/Bloomberg

Countries that have quickly rolled out coronavirus vaccines are only cautiously reopening for international travel, a sign it will take time for a hoped-for rebound in air traffic to develop.

U.K. airline capacity remains stuck at about one-tenth of 2019 levels, as the government weighs a May 17 target to restart international travel. Israel, where almost 55% of the population has been fully vaccinated, is preparing to welcome visitors in groups from May 23 if they can show they’ve had the jab.

Decision makers face a tough balancing act. A second summer in a row without significant air travel would deal a major setback to an already struggling aviation industry, and also to hotels, shops and restaurants that rely on tourism. Meanwhile, there are concerns that premature reopenings will help spread newer strains of the coronavirus and undermine progress toward slowing the spread of the disease.

Table of Contents

Toggle

Still Grounded

Seat capacity remains stuck despite high vaccination levels

Source: OAG

The U.S. may provide a test case. The country has struggled to keep infection rates down, even as a powerful vaccination campaign gathers pace. While international trips to most destinations are still off-limits, domestic capacity is ramping up, with airlines planning to add flights in coming weeks.

Chile is already in full retreat. The Latin American country secured supplies from China’s Sinovac Biotech Ltd. and has fully vaccinated more than a quarter of its population. After reopening for air travel in November, it has now backtracked, closing its borders to most this month in response to a spike in Covid-19 cases.

Cautious Approach

In the U.K., about half the population has received at least one dose. The government, determined to protect hard-won success bringing down infection rates, has said it’ll look at the data early next month on which countries should be green-listed in its traffic-light system, before making a final decision on the May 17 target to lift the ban on non-essential travel.

Airlines have clamored for Britain to lead the way toward a reopening in the region. Wizz Air Holdings Plc Chief Executive Officer Jozsef Varadi said this week that he was no longer counting on a rebound in European air travel during this summer’s high season, citing travel restrictions and problems with vaccine rollouts.

Israel has led the world in vaccinations, and while eager to restart tourism, the government has said it will reopen only in stages starting May 23. Groups will go first because they’re easier to monitor, according to Haaretz. No date has been set to allow individual travelers, and health officials will be monitoring infection rates before making a decision.

Holding Pattern